基于羊群效应的需求侧管理示范项目信息最优发布策略

Optimal release strategy of demand side management demonstration project information based on herd behavior

中文关键词: 羊群效应  需求侧管理  示范信息  最优策略

英文关键词: herd behaviour  demand side management  demonstration information  optimization strategy

中文摘要:

      进行需求侧管理技术推广时，开展示范项目，发布相关示范信息，可以提升用户对技术的了解，并提供给用户相应的信息以决定自身对技术的接受和参与。首先利用羊群效应对个体用户跟随行为进行研究。基于贝叶斯法则，阐述了个体跟随行为与示范信息之间的关系，模拟用户利用示范信息进行决策的过程，分析投资者个体跟随行为与示范信息详细程度之间的关系，然后针对群体用户，提出示范信息发布内容对跟随行为程度的影响，并依据两者之间的数学联系建立示范信息的最优发布策略模型，以保证用户群对示范信息的响应效果最优。算例仿真说明，示范信息的发布效果的确受其发布内容的影响，验证了模型的正确性和有效性。

英文摘要:

      When DSM technology is porpularing, the development of the demonstration projects and the release of relevant demonstrative information can increase the users’ acquaintance for the technology and provide information to decide wheather to accept and participate in the technology.Firstly, individual power comsumer’s behavior was studied by herd behavior.Based on Bayes rule, the relationship between the individual followingup behavior and the demonstration information was explained.The consumers’ decision making process in accrodance with the demonstration information was simulated, and the relationship between investors’ following-up behaviors and the level of detail of the demonstration information was analyzed.Then aiming at user group, the influence of the content of demonstration information on the degree of following-up behavior was proposed, which was utilized to establish optimal release strategy of demonstration information to ensure the best response of the user group.At last, simulation results showed that the effect of demonstration information was indeed affected by its content, which proved that the model was correct and effective.