省级用电市场发展态势综合量化评估分析方法研究

Research on comprehensive quantitative evaluation and analysis method of provincialelectricity market development situation

中文关键词: 外部经济环境  分类降维  用电市场评估

英文关键词: external economic environment  dimension re.duction  evaluation of electricity market

中文摘要:

      面对新电改形势下动态的、不确定的外部经济环境的影响，要正确地把握用电市场的发展趋势及规律，就必须综合地分析外部环境下各方面因素。通过对原始数据的季节调整、标准化等处理，使数据能反映其较为真实的规律，其次对众多经济指标进行分类降维，最后基于改进的柯布 -道格拉斯生产函数，来量化各类经济指标对用电量的影响程度。通过对外部环境的影响进行持续跟踪、数据积累，及时识别影响用电市场的因素，对用电市场观测者准确把握用电市场发展态势具有重要的参考价值。

英文摘要:

      In the face of dynamic and uncertain effects of theexternal economic environment, in order to correctly grasp the pro.vincial electricity market trends and laws, it is necessary to take allaspects of the external environment factors into consideration.Theseasonal adjustment and standardization are applied in the originaldata, so that the data can reflect its more real laws, then the econom.ic indicators are classified and the dimension is reduced.Finally,based on the improved Cobb.Douglas production function, the im.pact of various economic indicators on electricity consumption couldbe quantified.By tracking the impact on the external environment,accumulating data, timely identifying external policies and incidentsaffecting the electricity market, the result has important referencevalue for electricity market observers to accurately grasp the devel.opment trend of electricity market.