基于社会经济饱和发展特征的安徽省电力需求研究

Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics

中文关键词: 饱和特征  电力需求  协整  指标体系

英文关键词: characteristics of saturation  electricity demand  co.integration  index system

中文摘要:

      和电力需求研究有助于把握电力发展特征，指导近中期预测工作。分析了不同国家在饱和发展阶段经济社会发展及电力需求的特征，建立了适用于判定大区域发展饱和阶段的内生特征和电力需求外征的指标体系；研究工业化过程中经济发展、产业结构、人口规模、人均 GDP水平、产值电耗等内生因素，采用协整方法构建了电量需求外征模型并预测了饱和需求，并通过与其它先进地区发展路径进行横向对比印证饱和需求特征的合理性。

英文摘要:

      Saturated electricity demand study contributes tograsp the characteristics of electricity development and guides thenear and medium.term forecasts.The saturation development stageof economic, society and the electricity consumption in differentcountries was analyzed.An index system including endogenous andexternal characteristics for evaluating the regional saturated electrici.ty demand was then established.Based on the research of endoge.nous variables in industrialization process, such as economy, indus.trial structure, population, GDP per capita and electricity consump.tion per unit output value, external characteristics of electricity de.mand was modeled with co.integration and forecasted for saturation.Also, the validity of saturated demand forecast was proved throughcontrast with development process of other advanced province.