考虑场景聚类的配电网运行灵活性评价

Operational flexibility evaluation of distribution network considering scenario clustering

中文关键词: 灵活性评价  配电网  场景聚类  可中断负荷  预测误差

英文关键词: flexibility evaluation  distribution network  scenario clustering  interruptible load  prediction error

中文摘要:

      随着配电网新能源渗透率的不断提高，需要对配电网的运行灵活性进行全面的评估。但目前关于灵活性的讨论多集中在输电系统，且评价场景单一，也缺乏对可中断负荷等灵活性资源的讨论。因此基于灵活性场景的聚类，提出一种配电网灵活性评价方法。首先采用近邻传播算法聚类得到典型的配电网运行场景。然后考虑风电和负荷出力的不确定性，用非参数模型拟合预测误差概率分布。结合蒙特卡罗模拟和配电网经济调度模型，提出考虑配电网灵活性评价指标的实用化计算方法。采用某实际配电网数据对所提算法进行验证，并研究了可中断负荷对灵活性评价的影响。

英文摘要:

      With the increasing penetration rate of new energy in distribution network, it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive evaluation on the operation flexibility of distribution network. However, most of the discussions on flexibility are focused on the transmission system, and the evaluation scenario is single and lack of discussion on the interruptible load and other flexibility resources.Based on the clustering of flexibility scenarios, a distribution net-work flexibility evaluation method is proposed. Firstly, the nearest neighbor propagation algorithm is used to cluster the typical distribution network operation scenarios. Then, considering the uncertainty of wind power and load output, nonparametric model is used to fit the probability distribution of prediction error. Then, combined with Monte Carlo simulation and distribution network economic dispatch model, a practical calculation method of distribution network flexibility evaluation index is proposed. An actual distribution network data is used to verify the proposed algorithm, and the impact of interruptible load on flexibility evaluation is studied.