“双碳”目标下的港口岸电改造决策优化模型与算法

Decision⁃making optimization model and algorithm for port on⁃shore power retrofit under the“dual carbon”goal

中文关键词: 节能减排  电能替代  港口岸电  动态博弈

英文关键词: energy saving and emission reduction  electric energy substitution  on⁃shore power  dynamic game theory

中文摘要:

      港口岸电改造是实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的重要 手段。在制定港口岸电改造计划时，需要考虑政策环境与船 舶岸电使用意愿。然而，现有的岸电模型通常默认所有到港 船舶均使用岸电，忽略了船舶的自主选择权；并且通常忽略船 舶差异性，未考虑船舶排队、泊位选择等精细化过程。这都导 致了目前岸电建设“岸侧热、船侧冷”问题，使长江中下游不少 港口岸电利用率不高、港口难以收回岸电改造成本。为此，提 出一种基于两阶段动态博弈的港口岸电改造决策模型与算 法，在模型下层允许船舶根据靠港时间、用油用电成本、港口 条件、等待成本等因素自主决策是否使用岸电；在模型上层给 出港口的最优岸电泊位改造数量和最优岸电服务费收费标 准。算例结果表明，此方法能在保证港口与船方经济利益的 前提下实现节能减排。另外，讨论了不同政策对双碳目标的 影响。

英文摘要:

      Port on-shore power retrofit is an important method to achieve“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”. While formulating an on-shore power retrofit plan, it is necessary to consider the government policy and the willingness of ship company to use on - shore power. However, the existing models usually default that all arriving ships use on-shore power, ignoring the independent choice of ships. Also, they usually ignore the differences of ships, without considering the refined processes such as queuing of ships and berth selection. These are the reasons that the on-shore power retrofit is“hot on the shore and cold on the ship side”. Many ports in the middle and lower Yangtze River have low utilization rates of shore power, and it is difficult for ports to recover the cost of shore power transformation. To this end, a decision-making optimization model for on- shore power retrofit is proposed, based on two-stage dynamic game theory. The model allows ships to independently decide whether to use shore power based on factors such as docking time, oil and electricity costs, port conditions, and waiting costs. Based on the algorithm, the optimal number of modified berths and the optimal shore power service fee are calculated. The numerical results of the case show that this method can achieve energy saving and emission reduction under the premise of ensuring the economic benefits of both port and the ship owners. Moreover, the impact of different government policies on the dual-carbon goal is discussed.