户用光伏发电补贴退坡与平价上网的两阶段仿真研究

Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation

中文关键词: 户用光伏  系统动力学  补贴退坡  仿真预测

英文关键词: residential photovoltaic  system dynamics  subsidy decline  simulation prediction

中文摘要:

      基于分布式户用光伏发电补贴退坡和平价上网两 阶段构建系统动力学模型。首先，在对历年补贴退坡情况进 行分析研究的基础之上，按照一定的下调比例对补贴退坡进 程中户用光伏的装机量、投资意愿和单位装机成本进行预 测。其次，模拟其步入平价上网阶段后各指标的发展趋势，得 到2020年至2028年户用光伏发展的仿真结果。最后，使用算 例验证模型有效性。算例表明，户用光伏将在2022年由补贴 退坡转入平价上网阶段，并且到2025年左右将正式从平价上 网的适应阶段过渡至发展阶段。

英文摘要:

      According to the two stage of subsidy decline and grid parity, a model of system dynamics is constructed. Firstly, based on the analysis of the decline of subsidies in the past few years, it is predicted of the installed capacity, investment willingness and unit installed cost of residential photovoltaic in the process of subsidy decline according to a certain reduction ratio. Then, the development trend of each index after it enters the stage of grid parity is simulated. The simulation results of residential photovoltaic development from 2020 to 2028 are obtained. Finally, an example is used to verify the validity of the model. The example shows that residential photovoltaic will change from subsidy decline to the stage of grid parity in 2022, and it will officially transition from the adaptation stage to the development stage of grid parity access by around 2025.