浙江省行业用电市场景气指数分析

Analysis of industry electricity market prosperity index in Zhejiang province

中文关键词: 大数据处理  景气指数  3点预测探查法  合成指数  扩散指数

英文关键词: big data processing  prosperity index  three points forecast-based probing  composite index  diffusion index

中文摘要:

      用电市场景气分析对电力规划、生产、决策、需求侧管理等具有重要意义。基于浙江省用电信息采集系统采集的各行业用电大数据资源，构建了行业用电市场景气指数模型，分析了行业用电市场景气程度。首先，采用X-12-ARIMA（X-12 autoregressive integrated moving average）季节调整法对数据进行预处理以剔除季节性因素。然后，采用三点预测探查法将行业用电指标划分为先行、一致和滞后3类指标。然后，使用划分后的3类指标分别编制合成指数和扩散指数，对行业用电景气程度进行分析，并根据扩散指数的结果对用电市场景气程度做预警分析。实验结果表明，所提方法与实际情况相吻合，从而验证了所提方法在景气分析上的有效性。

英文摘要:

      The analysis of industry electricity market prosperity is very meaningful to power planning, production, decision-making and demand side management. Based on the big data resources of industry electricity consumption provided by the data collection system of Zhejiang province, the industry electricity market prosperity index model is constructed and the prosperity degree of the industry electricity market is analyzed. Firstly, X - 12-ARIMA（X -12 Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average）seasonal adjustment model is used to pre-process the data to eliminate seasonal factors. Then, three points forecast - based probing are used to divide the indexes into leading, consistent and lagging indexes respectively. By compiling electricity composite index and diffusion index, the prosperity degree of the industry electricity market is analyzed, and the warning index of industry electricity market is provided correspondingly. Experimental results show that the proposed method is consistent with the actual situations, thus indicating its effectiveness in the prosperity analysis of industry electricity market.