考虑远景约束的中长期用电量预测方法研究

Medium-long term electricity consumption prediction considering future scenario constraints

中文关键词: 用电量预测  远景约束  Logistic函数  曲线拟合

英文关键词: power demand prediction  long-rang perspective constrained  Logistic function  curve fitting

中文摘要:

      电力需求预测是电力规划的重要环节。提出考虑远景发展情景约束的用电量预测思路，即首先对远景水平年用电量水平进行综合研判，再利用具有饱和特性的Logistic曲线来拟合用电量增长过程，模型参数辨识环节增加远景用电量水平约束，使所建模型既能准确反映用电量历史增长趋势，又能与用电量长期发展趋势相符。最后利用所建模型求取中间水平年用电量预测值。将上述方法运用于全国和广西中长期用电量预测，验证了本文方法的可行性，对电力需求预测具有一定的参考意义。

英文摘要:

      Electrical demand prediction is an important issue in power system planning. An improved electricity prediction method is put forward, which looks out the electricity consumption level in long term future first, then utilizes Logistic curve to fit the electricity consumption growth with saturation process. The future developing scenario constrains are taken into account in the parameter identification step of Logistic curve, which makes the curve beable to not only reflect the historical changing trend but also be in accordance with the future scenario. This method is applied to predict the electricity consumption of China and Guangxi Province in case studies respectively, and shows feasible and significant to other power demand prediction tasks.